Valuation and scenario Multi Criteria Analysis of transportation alternative strategies to mitigate the local sprawl

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The general research here introduced concerns the phenomenon of urban sprawl unfolding in the last century and defined as "the physical pattern of lowdensity settlement in urban areas".The focus, as part of the more general research cited, is the relationship between sprawl and public transportation.The specific study here present is a possible approach to planning and managing policy responses to urban sprawl through the integration of consolidated settlement systems (with a view to their rerevitalization) with rail green public transportation in the framework of TOD (Transit-Oriented Development).A paramount issue emerges about sprawl: there are prototype case in which TOD and rail green public transportation help concentrate settlement instead of sprawl?No cases have been found.Instead the most recent literature recommends to perform new researches concerning solutions through real world applications, given the total shortage of case studies.
The general research framework has been applied in a specific Case Study to support the community of Calabria, the southernmost Mediterranean region of mainland Italy in European Union, within the most urbanized sub-regional sub-area, in analyzing the rampant phenomenon of sprawl and, possibly, in addressing and mitigating it relying on TOD and rail green public transportation.
In the Case Study of the present research there are three alternatives in sub regional public transportation: A1; A2; A3.
A1 is the status quo.
A2 is the upgrading of the railway which, although existing, is illogically neglected.

Abstract
-analyze the trend of sprawl over time and estimate its consistency and topographic extension in the study areas; -understand the causes of sprawl including lack of planning and long-term strategy in both countryside and urban space, attempting to identify any causal link with population growth and at the same time with economic growth; -search, identify and develop measures for its mitigation in policy responses, also based on some reference experiences; -design and test new sets of criteria for the multidimensional evaluation of policy responses aimed at mitigating and coping with the sprawl itself.
!"# $%&'()*+,')('-%&',.&*/(/*',-+01'.2&,&3-&0' The focus of the specific study presented here, as part of the more general research cited, is the relationship between sprawl and transportation (Massimo, Barbalace, 2010;Massimo, Barbalace, Massimo, Cefalà, 2011;Massimo, Musolino, Barbalace, 2009b, 2010;Massimo, Massimo, 2010;Massimo, Musolino, !" ''4565789'75:587;<'=78>5?@7A'86B' :C5;D=D;'=@;E:' "In the social and economic relevant research area concerning the potential mitigation of LOCAL urban sprawl through rail green public transportation there is a total lack of prototype and significant case studies at LOCAL level."(Ibrahim, 2022) !"! 4&3&2FG'7&,&F2*%' The general research introduced here concerns the phenomenon of urban sprawl unfolding in the last century and defined as "the physical pattern of low density settlement in urban areas, under market conditions, mainly in the surrounding of agricultural areas as well as open land" (EEA, 2006), in the complex European urban system (and beyond in the all Planet).This research (a part of which are the following: Massimo, 2009;Massimo et alii, 2009;Massimo, Barbalace, 2009a, 2009b;Massimo, Musolino, Barbalace, 2009a), through meta-analysis and analysis at different scales, aimed at: journal valori e valutazioni No. 34 -2023 36 and outside any transport or mobility or accessibility institutional public plan.The three alternatives were subjected to social discussions well as a qualitative evaluation by a panel of experts.The multiple criteria valuation approach resulted in a preference for Alternative A2 over Alternatives A1 and A3.The preferred Alternative A2 integrates perfectly with the existing settlement by responding to a fundamental criterion placed at the top of the valuation: integrating the urban railway directly into the existing consolidated inhabited centers.This preferable Alternative A2 has among its peculiar characteristics: -directly connects many of the settlements in the area; -can serve approximately MORE THAN 250,000 potential settled residents; -connects coast to coast the narrowest regional and national isthmus; -creates the fastest and shortest possible connection in the national territory between the two fundamental railway backbones Tyrrhenian (Palermo -Milan -Torino) and Ionian-Adriatic (Reggio Calabria -Venice); -thereby helping to connect two of the Trans European Network and pan-European train mega-corridors I (Palermo -Berlin) and VIII (Skopje -Varna).The A2 Alternative has the further distinctive feature of performing both local and supra-local dual service in a unified venue that is both train-tram and long-distance rail, in analogy with continental benchmarks and experiences, such as the German S-Bahn.Subsequently, in the Case Study, the costs of the Alternative A2 for the upgrading (and "modernization") of the existing railway has an estimated cost of 168 million appraised by the research team with a detailed quantification, and subsequently, in de facto double-blind estimate, surprisingly confirmed by the railway managing body.According to the latest and most up-dated estimates by the same railway managing body , the completely new route project located far south of all the settlements, constituting the Alternative A3, would cost over 485 million, are reported.This is because all the areas have to be acquired and because the route crosses land with technical difficulties to be overcome by carrying out expensive works.In terms of costs, the preferred Alternative 2 seems to be the most balanced, much more even than the status quo Alternative 1 (do nothing).The latter only apparently has no big investment costs, unless ordinary maintenance.In fact it hides enormous private costs and implicit (and not immediately monetary) social suffering, due to: car commuting (un-pooled) of people; their monetizable travel times, enormous due to congestion; air pollution; accident risks; congestion in cities; high private personal costs of using the individual vehicle (car wear; fuel); parking cost and fine risk; etc.Since '80, some movements began to conceive a strategic, national, regional, local planning able to address the countriesand regions transportation accessibility ("measure of the capacity of a location to be reached from") needs by scheduling and building up a back bone of green train system responding at the same time (according to combination of experiences such as s-Bahn, high speed rail, trans express rail) to national, regional, community demands in a growth general framework.This strategic planning approach, from community to global -planetary level, have been defined in '80 as: Transit-Oriented Development, TOD.After decades TOD is a catchphrase of the planning world and one of most comprehensive approach at all geographic levels: community; region; macro-region; country, sub continent.It supports the sustainable development through the strategic integration among land use, development and green transportation system noticeable public rail.The radical shifting is FROM "automotive country" and "automotive cities" TO "green public transport country" and "green public transportation cities".After several implementations, a systemic and recent review (Ibrahim, 2022) notice that even TOD is a key tool in planning worldwide, it still asks for more studies adapted to specific and relevant LOCAL contexts (p.395).
"Finally, there is a need to conduct more studies which allow planners to […] refine TOD […] and evaluate different TOD plans and adapt them to local contexts."(Ibrahim, 2022, 395).
!"R >)2&',-+0/&,')3'9@;89',1,-&K,' More studies are strongly requested, concerning: -the unexplored field of existing dense settlement consolidation and re generation trough local public rail transportation system; -the adaptation of TOD to significant local context; -and here, the appraisal of comparative alternative scenarios.The present research concerns: -a case in the neglected unexplored field of existing dense settlement consolidation trough local public rail transportation system; -the adaptation of TOD criteria to the local context of the case.
As an alternative to "free" (wild) building expansion, the connection with collective transportation services between dense settlements can make the difference.It can help consolidate existing densely populated centers, favor their structural accessibility, reduce individual vehicular traffic and the consequent road congestion.This represents an innovative approach, the aforementioned TOD, to reconstruct the positive relationship (disappeared in recent decades) between settlements and structural accessibility.This also favors new ways in the field of multi-criteria assessment of accessibility, infrastructure and transportation.

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The general research framework has been applied in a specific Case Study to support the community of Calabria, the southernmost Mediterranean region of mainland Italy, in analyzing the rampant phenomenon of sprawl and, possibly, in addressing and mitigating it.
Extensive analyzes of sprawl on a regional scale (Massimo et alii, 2009;Massimo, Barbalace, 2009a, 2009b;Massimo, Musolino, Barbalace, 2009a) have made it possible to estimate an impressive land consumption per year in m 2 , i.e. the topographic quantity of land destroyed annually due to the disorderly and wild building hyper-expansion in the agricultural territories surrounding the urban areas and particularly on the coasts.
After the sprawl analysis on a regional and provincial scale, through the aforementioned Case Study, the research focused on the central sub-regional area of the Calabrian isthmus (the narrowest part of Italy: 40 km width) where the second (Catanzaro) and third (Lamezia Terme) city of the region are located.In the region and in the study area, starting from 1954 (when the period of industrialization began in the North of the country and the welfare state have been established), a fragmented housing location was set up and then build.The serious consequences are, among other things, a high land consumption and a concomitant increase in the daily mobility of the inhabitants from the various scattered and rarefied settlements.This artificial mobility is carried out mostly, if not exclusively, by a private car, and it could not be otherwise, leading as a consequence: -inefficiency in social life; -waste of time; -consumption and dependence on fossil fuels; -increased pollution; -increased risk of road accidents; -parking difficulties at the destination places; -additional costs for infringements.The impacts listed above require specific studies to analyze and evaluate the possibilities of mitigating sprawl in the future.Organizations and experts (EEA, 2006;Galster et alii, 2001;Young, 1995) indicate among the structural policies the modernization and revitalization of existing settlements, and in particular of consolidated cities and towns today increasingly abandoned and neglected, serving them as possible with green rail and feeder public transportation systems for: -improve the objective structural accessibility in and between settlements for people and things; -create an alternative from individual mobility by a private car to collective accessibility.The indications of mitigation policies show that revitalization -urban regeneration and green public transportation are complementary structural investments because they contribute to changing the intrinsic characteristics of urban spaces and local economies and should therefore be seen as urban infrastructures.
M" ''754D@689';@77DB@7:'?D$<'D6;758:5B' ;@645:$D@6'86B'>D$D48$D@6'C@9D;D5:' The research has set up a new product, namely a "regional overtime topographic basemap" (Dangermond) which allows for detailed analyzes down to the topographic scale, of the dynamics of settlements in different historical periods.This tool has made it possible to identify the corridors with the greatest congestion in the region to prefigure selected structural improvement interventions also through alternative investments.In the central isthmic area of Calabria, the research has therefore identified the largest transportation corridor in the region.This is the transportation corridor that connects the center of gravity of the region on the Tyrrhenian coast and the capital on the Ionian coast, congested by individual journal valori e valutazioni No. 34 -2023 Valuation and scenario Multi Criteria Analysis of transportation alternative strategies to mitigate the local sprawl mobility by private cars of daily and periodic commuters, recording a large average daily traffic of about 28,000 cars.The analyzes carried out in other research on sprawl reveal that the elective mitigation policies are green public transportation by rail as the preferable way to increase intrinsic accessibility as an alternative to individual mobility (un-pooled) by road and private car.This future scenario of possible modal change through green public transportation, an alternative to the currentone.To evaluate it, the first step must be the analysis and the test on the propensity of commuters who already use private cars to change modal, "modal shifting", towards the collective public transportation especially on rail for their inter-city and intra-city travel.The research traced specific studies and surveys based on interviews with samples of commuters with encouraging results regarding the positive propensity and willingness of those who currently use private cars (some of them in the Case Study area) to change favor of public rail transportation.This confirms the need to focus future interventions on creating a close connection between the urban system and the railway system.

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5TD:$D64'78D9'7@8B'D6'$<5';8:5':$EBS' 8758' The regional transportation corridors are located and georeferenced in a dedicated information system, integrated with the basemap and together part of a wider general system for valuation and estimation or SGV (Stanghellini, 2004: pp. 217-242).This allows the cartographic spatial reading of the entire region from 1788 to 2023.Inside this reading it was surprising to discover that in the same area of the Case Study, in addition to the busiest and most congested main road corridor in the region, there is a parallel railway corridor East West.It is part of the original and intelligent railway system conceived in 1864, by Parliament of that time in a "modern" way, i.e. connecting directly with the new railway the highest possible number of towns and centers on the valleys and coasts.In addition, also the internal settlements thanks to courageous non-coastal railway lines such as the Calabro-Lucane (Catanzaro-Cosenza) and Gioiesi (Cinquefrondi -Gioia Tauro).This underestimated transversal East-West railway corridor connects numerous settlements serving a total of about 250,000 residents, including the second (Catanzaro) and the third (Lamezia Terme, Cz) largest cities in the region, one of which is the administrative capital, as well as numerous scientific and technological poles, the University, two hospitals , the seat of the regional government, the general markets.It also represents a potential link with: other important transportation infrastructures including the two national railway backbones; two continental corridors and the Trans-European Networks (TENs); the International Airport of Lamezia Terme (CZ), the busiest and growing in the region with over 3,000,000 passengers every year and daily peaks of over 10,000 passengers \ day in summer; hubs of concentrations of other modes of transportation such as bus stations and car parks.
The important potential of the cited existing railway track is illogically neglected, depriving people and commuters of an important modal option and instead maintaining an expensive one (both for private budgets and for the environment and the public budget).The only commuting system in the area is the inefficient by only mode on road and by private car.
All this generates a non-optimal Pareto condition which can be improved with public investments following the structural indications of the policies, mentioned above, and some successful benchmarks already achieved.
U" ''$786:C@7$8$D@6'89$5768$DV5:'D6'$<5' ;8:5':$EBS'8758' The results of the surveys on the potential "modal shifting" of current car commuters also push us to take consideration and valuation of the existing and possible future commuting alternatives in the area.The valuation must use more criteria, and not just the two known ones: initial cost of investment; transportation cruising speed.
Carrying out the census (on the field and in the archives) of existing and potential future transportation alternatives, it was surprising to also discover the existence of a project (conceived by the public railway management company) which conceived and designed a totally hypothetical alternative and completely new railway corridor.This is located in the southernmost part of the Case Study area, outside any contents of the original and seminal plans or planning tools, both general and transportation (Ministry of Infrastructure, 2001;Ministry of Public Works, 2001;Province of Catanzaro, 2006;Calabria Region, 2001, 2003, 2007), and does not connect any settlement other than the historic center of the regional capital directly with the international airport.In this way, the existence in the area of three potential transport alternatives is configured.
• Alternative 1, (A1): state of affairs or existing condition, do nothing, unless maintenance costs; prevalence of a main road for inter-city commuting with a private car, and not contemplating the railway.• Alternative 2, (A2): strong physical and functional upgrading of the existing railway (parallel to the North with respect to Alternative 1); today this railway is neglected and abandoned although it represents a strategic very strong potential for the future spatial and economic management of the area and related planning.• Alternative 3, (A3): new project for a new hypothetical railway corridor (parallel and far South of Alternative 1), conceived by the public railway management company, which does not directly serve the numerous settlements and inhabitants and is completely outside any general transport planning tool.
journal valori e valutazioni No. 34 -2023 W" ''D6$5478$D@6'X5$?556'45@B8$8X8:5' 86B'>E9$D';7D$57D8'8689S:D:'P>;8Q' The research revealed the need and usefulness of tools and systems capable of integrating the valuation engines with the spatial ones to easily allow the valuators to have a platform supported by geographic systems that provide localized data to spatially graduate the criteria, allowing to make estimates with greater effectiveness of results.
A parallel very specific ( (Vreeker, 2000) Multi Criteria Analysis tool successfully adopted for "MCA decision making on strategic accessibility, mobility, infrastructures and transportation" is (among some others) the "Flag model for transport".The main purpose of the Flag Model is to analyze whether one or more scenarios/policy alternatives can be classified as acceptable or not.The Flag Model has been designed to assess if alternatives fulfil predefined standards or normative statements in an valuation process.There are three important components of the model: 1. identifying a set of measurable standards or indicators; 2. establishing a set of normative reference values; 3. developing a practical methodology for assessing alternatives.The Input of the Flag Model is an impact matrix with a number of n variables; this matrix is formed by the values that the indicators assume for each considered scenario.The methodology requires the identification and definition of policy relevant indicators or standards, which are suitable for further empirical treatment in the assessment procedure (Ouwersloot, 1998).The previously cited algorithms, methods and tools have some limitations in: -limited number of alternatives; -limited number of criteria; -limited number of run; -average quality of graph results; -no spatial information; -no default connection to state of the art RDBMS; -no default connections to state of the art; geographic information system or GIS.To overcome these limitations, dedicated algorithm named McaGisGevaul algorithm have been developed (Massimo, Barbalace, Massimo, Cefalà, 2010;Massimo, Barbalace, Cefalà, Vescio, 2010) able to provide: -unlimited number of alternatives; -unlimited number of criteria; -unlimited number of run; -good quality of graph results; -spatial information; -default connection to state of the art dbms; -default connections to state of the art; geographic information system or GIS; -prototype geo-referenced and tested in the Case Study.The McaGisGevaul algorithm favors the comparative evaluation of transportation alternatives, therefore deployed in a geographical space for which topographically localized information (in the available basemaps) is urgently needed to allow Panel of infrastructure experts to assign scores or ordinal scores to the criteria.In fact, there is a variety of criteria describing the population, the area, the settlement, the transportations.
These data layers are added to the dedicated Geodatabase which contains the spatial representation of the alternatives together with the related alphanumeric information.Specifically, directly operational analytical tools have been adopted that allow the simultaneous management of both ordinal and cardinal data, such as the analytical technique of the appropriate spatialized software with dedicated algorithms developed by Massimo, Barbalace, Massimo, Cefalà, 2010.The system creates an information layer to start the comparative assessment with multiple criteria to be quantified (scoring) as many times as there are Alternatives.The matrix produced by the scores, i.e. the scores assigned, is managed thanks to the Massimo technique (Massimo, 1995), which at the end of the processing produces a specific spatialized vector as a ranking of the alternatives, through the methodological steps described below.Y" ''8CC7@8;<5:'86B'65?':5$:'@=';7D$57D8' 86B'8CC9D;8$D@6:' The TOD represents a new settlement-transportation framework.
It also integrates the way of valuating in the transportation sector where the estimates have often been carried out considering only a few isolated judgment criteria, such as: -initial investment costs, as initial input; -transportation cruising speed, as final output.These are often adopted as the one and only levers for making choices in the transportation infrastructure investment sector.
The research suggests to: set up the assessment by synoptic comparison in multiple scenarios including the status quo; move from just two estimation criteria (for the choice in the field of transportation infrastructure scenarios) to a Multi Criteria Analysis and Valuation; therefore include new relevant criteria for the valuation of alternatives; express the objectives of the strategy through these criteria.

Alignment of alternative to transportation policy
The qualitative multiple valuation estimates in advance the alignment to policy of important features in each of the alternative designs.They make up the future transportation scenarios within the framework of the TOD approach.The latter aims to replace the current artificial mobility with the structural transportation accessibility ("measure of the capacity of a location to be reached from") to and within and between settlements.The criteria must be logically connected to the policy and to new way of understanding the organization of transportation in an "integrated" way in the framework of structural accessibility within inhabited centers as well as between settlement systems and therefore aimed at tackling and possibly mitigating urban sprawl.

"Policy-alternative coherence criteria"
One of the main tasks of the valuation should be the comparative assessment of the policy coherence and the effectiveness of alternative transportation projects in achieving the objectives.
In the most recent approaches to transportation valuation and TOD (TOD Institute, 2023;Ibrahim, 2022) , new criteria are taken into consideration in addition to the two traditional ones relating to the initial construction costs, as an input, and to the travel and cruising speed, as an output.This is thanks to the several contributions provided by the Transit-Oriented Development Institute, Experts and Managers.

"Policy-alternative coherence criteria" literature"
A recent specific literature addresses criteria able to test the alignment to policy of transportation alternatives: the criteria are defined: "policy-alternative coherence criteria".

C1. Settlements served
A1 provides for the maintenance of the already existing congested car road, far from the settlements, therefore the alternative does not take the form of a railway (-).A2 provides for the upgrading of the already existing railway that crosses all the settlements (++) of the Case Study area.A3 is a newly planned hypothetical railway even further away from the settlements (-) than the existing road.

C2. Population served
A1 serves the area only indirectly through the secondary road system and the use of private cars is mandatory, therefore it can only be used by motorists (=) as it is not a railway alternative.A2 serves directly 250,000 residents by rail as well as the non-resident population (++).A3 does not directly serve residents (-).
journal valori e valutazioni

C3. Social consensus and grass root organizations
Local society hopes for a change: not to continue to maintain the current status of Alternative A1 alone (-).
Public activities and media reports show the pro-active, prevalent and almost unanimous social consensus towards A2 (++).
On the other hand, there is strong social opposition to the A3 (--) which instead needs enormous public efforts and spending, and which leaves all the settlements in the area without a direct and immediate inter-city \ intra-city public train railway service.
The result is that only A2 reaches the goal.

C4. Convergence of planning towards an alternative
All the planning tools examined, territorial and sectoral for transportation, converge clearly towards A2 (++) as an explicit alternative to the socially and ecologically adverse status quo A1 (-) and to the unmentioned and little disclosed Alternative A3 (-).Result: only A2 reaches the goal.

C5. CO 2 reduction
A1 leaves the current high level of pollution emitted without mitigation and without a possible alternative choice because it retains the only mode of the un-pooled private car (--).
A2 implies CO 2 structural perpetual reduction in the entire transportation sector in the area (++) both during the life cycle (mainly management) and in the initial investment because no railway has to be built completely from scratch.A3 has a positive impact on the reduction of CO 2 in the management, but not in the investment phase and this for two reasons: it requires the construction of a completely new infrastructure (-); it also implies the disposal of A2 with a consequent divestment of an existing functioning capital.

C6. Environmental impact \ landscape
A1 produces no negative change on the landscape (+).A2 produces minor changes in the landscape because it is a simple improvement and upgrade of an already existing railway line (+=).A3 is a completely new construction and its impact on the landscape is considerable (--).The panel assigns the following scores: A1:4; A2:3; A3:1.

C7. Railway networking. Global-local
A1 is not a railway (-).A2 connects Pan-European, national and inter-regional corridors with local services to all settlements, implementing the S-Bahn (++) or train-tram approach.A3 only connects long-distance corridors, but does not serve local communities neither inter-connect existing settlements (+=).The result is that only A2 reaches the goal.The panel assigns the following scores: A1:1; A2:5; A3:4.
journal valori e valutazioni The application of the criteria provides the above Table of first results.The examination of the qualitative empirical valuation allows us to deduce that only Alternative A2 seems to achieve the objective of the sustainable transportation approach capable of integrating commuter services with the more general railway system and of jointly connecting many settlements in the 'area.The A3 Alternative seems to fail some crucial political and social objectives, first of all the direct service to citizens inside the inhabited centers and the lack of inter-connection between the existing settlements in the area.The empirical valuation therefore derives the following heuristic ranking: A2; A1; A3.

Criteria Cardinal Scoring
The previous intuitive valuation heuristic weighed criteria with positive and negative signs.To date, the criteria do not have a reciprocal weight as multi-criteria analytical models would allow, which can help in further evaluations based on ordinal scores and also performing any weightings of the criteria themselves.The positive and negative signs were then transformed by the Panel of valuators.They are experts in scoring infrastructure and transportation scenarios.The consequent qualitative values (scores) that can be processed with analytical models.It is possible to introduce one of the frontier analytical models MCA, among those intensively applied and experimentally validated in the field.In the Case Study, the analytical model Mca-Gis-Gevaul was adopted in the first seminal spatialized version (Massimo, Barbalace, Massimo, Cefalà, 2010).A first methodological stage is the transformation of the previous heuristic intuitive scheme into the following matrix of ordinal scores.

Valuation
The specific analytical model of the Mca-Gis-Gevaul processes and elaborates the matrix and the relative scores and derives the ranking of the Alternatives, which confirms the heuristic intuition.
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Costs
In the strategy for the spatial management of the Case Study area and in the multiple criteria valuation to identify the preferred among the three possible coast to coast transportation alternatives, a preliminary analysis has been carried out to derive the costs related to the realization of alternatives A1, A2, A3.Even with the enrichment of the criteria, the two previous hierarchical scoring and rankings are confirmed, as can be inferred from the Table .It is further recognition of the consistency of the preferable alternative A2 implementing the objectives of the territorial strategy of integration between the settlement and the collective transportation system.
The ranking is confirmed.

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The integration between existing consolidated settlements and public transportation , especially rail, is an important objective of sprawl mitigation strategies.This integration can be transformed into planning content and into a valuation criterion for territorial and landscape change and modifications.
The comparative assessment between alternative scenarios and solutions of the settlement-transportation relationship can make use of the Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) approaches, therefore of the adoption of multiple criteria in grading (ranking) intervention alternatives aimed at solving the same problem with different approaches and methods.The application of an valuation approach, in the field of accessibility and transportation, based on broad and comprehensive multiple criteria (and not only on the two usual aspects of: initial investment costs; cruising speed) systematically leads to preferring an alternative rather than another on the basis of important objectives expressed by the characteristics of the alternatives themselves, such as: -directly serve the population, settlements and inhabited centers with infrastructures and services; -build consensus in society, along with stakeholders and stockholders; -implement choices contained in the deeds and tools of both general planning and sectoral planning and transport planning; -increase the structural accessibility between and in the settlements, and in the territories; -consequently, mitigate the frenzied artificial intra-interurban mobility created by urban zoning, which spatially separates urban functions into specialized neighborhoods; -mitigate the other form of dependence on individual mobility by a private car, deriving from dispersed and rarefied settlement, i.e. from sprawl in the peri-urban and agricultural space; -effect, reduce: use of cars; consumption of fossil fuels; road congestion; quantity of CO 2 emitted; resulting air pollution; -achieve railway integration between local and the regional networks, the national backbone system, and pan-European continental corridors such as the Trans European Network.In the Case Study of the research there are three alternatives: A1; A2; A3.A1 is the status quo.The three alternatives were subjected to a qualitative valuation by a Panel of experts.The multiple criteria evaluation approach resulted in a preference for Alternative A2 over Alternatives A1 and A3.The preferred Alternative A2 integrates it self perfectly with the existing settlement by responding to a fundamental policy criterion placed at the top of the valuation: integrating the urban train railway directly into the existing consolidated inhabited centers.This preferable Alternative A2 has among its peculiar characteristics: -directly connects many of the settlements in the area; -S-bahn serves approximately 250,000 potential settled residents; -connects coast to coast the narrowest regional and national isthmus; -creates the fastest and shortest possible connection in the national territory between the two fundamental railway backbones Tyrrhenian and Ionian; -thereby helping to connect two of the Rail Trans European Network and pan-European mega-corridors I (Palermo-Berlin) and VIII (Skopje-Varna).The A2 Alternative has the further distinctive feature of performing both local and supra-local dual service in a unified venue that is both train-tram and long-distance rail, in analogy with continental benchmarks and experiences, such as the S-Bahn.Subsequently, in the Case Study, the costs of the Alternative A2 for the upgrading (and "modernization") of the existing railway were estimated at 140 million (168, accounting inflation).According to the Rail Company estimates, the costs of the completely new rail project located far south of all the settlements, constituting the Alternative A3, which would cost over 405 million (485, accounting inflation) are reported.In terms of costs, the preferred Alternative 2 seems to be the most balanced, much more even than the status quo Alternative 1 (do nothing).The latter only apparently has no public construction costs.In fact, it hides enormous private costs and implicit (and not immediately monetary) social suffering, due to: car commuting (un-pooled) of people; travel times; air pollution; accident risks; congestion in cities; high private personal costs of using the individual vehicle.With the additional cost criterion, the ordinal data matrix was expanded and the multiplecriteria valuation was repeated, grading each criterion for each alternative with ordinal scores always expressed by the Panel of experts.The results produced by the analytical model and the related software, both spatialized, confirmed the order of magnitude of the previous ranking of the alternatives, and underlined the reliability of the method of the approach and of the special algorithm, in line with the objectives expressed by the same criteria.

$FJG&'^'N'Application of the Mca-GiS-Gevaul Derivation of the ranking of transportation alternatives by applying the analytical model
!!" =D7:$';@6:DB578$D@6' The most updated literature (Ibrahim, 2022;and [in progressive  The research reached its goals with some innovations.The research reached the objective to obtain empirical evidence that valuation, through rigorous qualitative criteria and reliable ordinal algorithm, can analyze and compare alternative complex strategies of public transportation, choosing the best able to carry out, following the carry out (following the "expert-based strategic scenario approach"), multiple missions in synchrony: serve commuters in a green and sustainable mode as S-bahn; link people, cities and places in a stable way; mitigate sprawl by enhancing the compact neighborhoods and the dense districts ; curb pollution emissions.Following the "expert-based strategic scenario approach" the research created an original set of specific criteria, to test and verify if strategies of public transportation can, in synchrony and in the same time, mitigate the local trend toward sprawl by toughening up the dense and multi -functional traditional towns and quarters serving directly their residents in addition to all other travelers.Because one aim of the research is to overcome the total lack of prototype Case Study with a direct interaction between urban sprawl, compact settlements and strategic rail green public transportation, the research provides an exemplar real world Case Study in the narrowest area of continental Italy, of just 48 km twidth: the isthmus of Lamezia Terme (Cz) and Catanzaro, the central part of the Region of Calabria, the South most of continental Italy.Furtherly., the research invented an original brand new general platform of multi criteria analysis, within Gis framework, made by Gevaul University Laboratory.In the real world Case Study the strategies and projects are alternative and politics are stuck on that.The academic free valuation performed in the research helped the real world, and the political arena made the choice for the alternative selected through the present free multi criteria valuation.The methodology and the process are open access and repeatable, comparable, refutable, verifiable.As the first conclusion, the research therefore achieved the aim of structuring the analysis and the valuation of alternative transportation infrastructure strategies and projects in a geographical area to derive, by applying a multiple-criteria engine, a hierarchical ranking for the choice between alternatives by methodology that is repeatable, comparable, refutable, verifiable.The limit of qualitative variables and criteria is their strength: clear ordinal criteria can effectively and Beyond, in the medium term, further researches shall quantify the benefic ecological footprint of the stronger rail inter urban service and valuate the social benefit of avoiding CO 2 emissions due to a smaller use of private individual cars.Then, a benefit cost analysis can be sketched.Further future research will be the assessment of the impact of increased accessibility (influencing also antiseismic safety, at large) on property values (Del Giudice, 2014;Manganelli, 2018).comparatively valuate conflicting alternative political choices in a perfect way, without very expensive cost benefit analysis that can be performed in the subsequent step.
A limit of the present research is the lack of cost analytic estimate of the Alternative A2 selected through the "expert-based strategic scenario approach".
rivista valori e valutazioni Valutazione multi-criteriale e analisi di scenario di strategie di trasporto per mitigare lo sprawl locale
rivista valori e valutazioni n. 34 -2023 !"#$%& '(gevaul4@gmail.com elaboration from authors $FJG&'U'N'Application of the Mca-Gis-Gevaul.Derivation of the ranking of transport alternatives by applying the analytical model from authors A second valuation have been performed by Flag Model with the following outcome.The further Flag valuation condfirmed the ranking.confirmed the previous ranking order]:Nijkamp 1997; Nijkamp 2004a ;  Button 2004b; Vreeker 2005; Nijkamp 2012; Carigliu   2013; Nijkamp 2013a; Beuthe 2018 a ; Camagni 2018 b)   detects a total lack of significant prototype and Case Studies concerning the potential mitigation of local urban sprawl through local rail green public transportation.One aim of the present research is to provide answer to this neglected topic.