Thinking the Future without Predicting it. Risk and uncertainty assessment in appraisals, real estate investments and spatial policies

Conference SIEV

Milan, 19 november 2021

The conference proposes a debate on risk and uncertainty assessment in real estate appraisals, investments and spatial policies. It is an opportunity to present and compare some recent and significant studies on risk and uncertainty evaluation, with emphasis on methodological and operational aspects of assessment techniques and tools.

The conference will host a plenary session with invited keynote speakers, and a papers session selected through the call for papers. Both sessions will be dedicated to real estate investment analysis, as well as to public investment evaluation and urban and territorial policies.

In real estate, distinctions have been made regarding those areas: in real estate valuation, we talk about the uncertainty of results, while the risk is related to the investment analysis, and it measures the variance of expected returns. Risk and uncertainty are recognised as embedded in the valuation process, and without transparent markets and data, it is difficult to identify, measure and manage real estate risk. Understanding the factors that influence property price and profitability, analysing their impact and incorporating their components into investment analysis models are relevant issues that research must address, especially concerning the extensive technological transformation that the real estate sector is undergoing.

On the side of public investments and territorial policies, moreover it is necessary to take into account the social complexities as an additional sources of uncertainty, due to them being part of public policy processes, involving a multitude of decision-makers, often pursuing “social” goals not necessarily related to strictly economic returns, hence inevitably involving ethical-political considerations, and finally, due to the scope, scale and sensibility of policies, exhibiting at times profiles of systemic risk. All these features of risk and uncertainty in spatial policies require the use of appropriate evaluation approaches, including different families of heuristics and methods for complexity assessment, reference class forecasting and scenario planning, among others.

Hence, the submitted papers may relate to risk and uncertainty:

1. in private real estate investments
2. in public investment choices
3. in planning assessments
4. in public-private partnership operations
5. in the assessment of complex projects
6. in the planning of strategic interventions and projects, including large infrastructures.

Proposals for contributions can be submitted by sending an abstract with keywords by 10 October (to manuela.rebaudengo@polito.it). Accepted contributions will be published in a volume of the Springer series “Green Energy and Technologies” after the review process. Acceptance and submission details will be notified on 15 October.

In case of a large number of abstracts, the scientific committee will choose between two different forms of participation: direct intervention in the reserved session or recorded intervention (short video/ppt of max 5 min, made available online).

The conference will also hold an in memoriam of Franco Prizzon, who has worked on these issues.

Scientific Committee: Ivan Blečić, Chiara D’Alpaos, Elena Fregonara, Laura Gabrielli, Benedetto Manganelli, Pierluigi Morano, Alessandra Oppio, Manuela Rebaudengo, Paolo Rosato.